Portland Mayoral Race Analysis & Endorsement
Navigating the Portland political Mapps
Going to bury the lede and knock this one out first, since circuit court judges are actually super important and we rarely have a contested race:
Circuit Court Judge, Position 38
Who are they?
Five candidates. No one submitted to the Voter’s Guide because they all jumped into the race after the guide’s deadline for complicated reasons of timing and judicial norms.
The best rundowns come from the Oregonian:
There’s also this WW forum, if you care to watch:
Analysis
There’s no obvious lemons from their public-facing info, though what we have to go on is awfully slim and skeletons may abound for all we know. They all have slightly different backgrounds and subtle (to my non-lawyerly eye) differences in judicial philosophy.
High level:
Auxier — the most mainstream candidate, district attorney with experience and the most endorsements (WW, Oregonian, Both Schmidt & Vasquez). His approach to speeding up the judicial process seems practical and straightforward, which I liked.
Dwyer — Defense attorney. The most inexperienced by a pretty good margin.
Myrick — Defense attorney with some prosecutorial experience.
Philips — Defense attorney. Endorsed by the Mercury. She’s definitely has the most unusual background, coming to law later in life. Prioritizing resolving cases quickly makes sense but she’s fuzzy on the details.
Schlosser — Defense attorney with some civil experience from awhile back. The fig leaf towards preventing recidivism is welcome.
How am I voting?
For what it’s worth, I expect Auxier to win regardless of what I say. Still, I’m doing my due diligence here.
Like it did for the WW, for me it came down on the merits to Philips and Auxier. It’s clear from the endorsement landslide that the insiders prefer Auxier. He’s also the one DA I know of who appears to have donated to Mike Schmidt’s 2024 campaign, so it’s not like he’s a fire-breathing lock-’em-up prosecutor. His federal giving also tracks as fine, since it was to Andreas Salinas, Raphael Warnock, and Emily’s List.1 The endorsements coupled with his political giving history is enough to sway me.
Jeff Auxier
Portland City Mayor
A few thoughts before we start.
This is a Ranked Choice election; we can choose up to six. I’m going to try and order a full six pack.
There are 19 folks on the ballot. I can’t and won’t realistically go into all of them. Besides the “top 5” many of them are unserious candidates and the rest simply don’t have a chance.
Thanks to the new form of government, the Mayor’s power is very different. Before, they were a both an administrator and a glorified city council member with the power to determine which city councilfolk administered which bureaus. With the new government, they are both more ceremonial and, in some ways, more powerful. They are a tie-breaking vote for the council of 12, they hire and fire the city manager (who handles all day to day administration) and direct the city administrator’s policy. If you’ve ever lived in another city Portland’s new mayor now functions like… a mayor (where before they didn’t, really).
My Philosophy
When it comes to local elections, you can find my general approach here.
With the new system of government, I’ll be voting on the new city councilors primarily on policy grounds.
For the mayor, it’s a little different. It’s as much about temperament as it is their concrete policy positions. I’m more looking to find someone who is an effective leader, who is a great communicator, who can prioritize, and who can manage a budget. Policy chops, coalition building abilities, and crisis management skills are all a plus.
Who are the candidates?
There are three distinct groups:
The contenders: Rubio, Gonzalez, and Mapps. All three are current sitting city councilfolk.
The fringe contenders: Wilson and Østhus. These are (comparative) outsiders who have run active and effective campaigns, enough so that they have gotten serious looks by the press and broader public.
Everyone else. Some of these folks are interesting. Some of them are kooks. None of these folks have a realistic shot. I will not discuss them in any detail.
Analysis
Let’s be real. This election is, first a foremost, a referendum on how to address homelessness in the city. Homelessness has been an enduring issue in Portland since forever, but it’s been far more salient since the rapid rise in rental costs starting about 2013. Several things have changed recently:
The U.S. Supreme Court overturning the Martin v. Boise precedent in Grant’s Pass vs. Johnson.
Updates to the Camping ordinance
The (likely) upcoming collapse of the city-county Joint Office of Homeless Services.
While policy is ultimately set by Council I expect the incoming mayor will have a lot of influence on what happens next. How will they get existing homeless folks housed? How will they keep more folks from becoming homelessness? How do they ensure the safety and well-being of the currently homeless, while also ensuring a clean, livable, safe, and joyful cityscape for everyone, housed and unhoused?
All the candidates are “Democrats” in the Harris vs. Trump context but there’s a lot of daylight across the mayoral candidate spectrum—from ensuring affordable housing is available to everyone, with minimal camping bans or enforcement, to re-criminalizing drugs and homelessness and enforcing regular sweeps irrespective of shelter availability. This is unscientific but my rough guide of the candidates, from left to right on this spectrum, is Østhus, Rubio, Wilson, Mapps, Gonzalez.
There’s also the police. The chief will be hired/fired by the mayor, with Council’s approval. The police oversight board may not have much authority here. Which means, in practice, the mayor is the primary oversight for the PPB and its leadership.
Reasonable people may disagree on whether PPB is understaffed or they are just poor at prioritizing and managing their resources.2 Either way, I need a mayor who I can trust to advocate for their proper resourcing while also holding them accountable.
Beyond the issues, there’s the matter of the bully pulpit. That’s the real, enduring role of an effective mayor: to focus an entire municipal government around a few themes, to build consensus, and to communicate those internally (to the city administrator), externally (to the voters), and broadly (to the world, as the ambassador for Portland).
Pros and Cons: The Contenders
Mingus Mapps — Formerly a government employee himself, Mapps took over Eudaly’s seat several years back, running as a sort of insider/outsider. He has been over PBOT, the Water Bureau, and Environmental Services. In practice he’s been…bad but not catastrophic. Broadly ineffective? From my perspective, he tried (and failed) to scuttle the charter commission’s overhaul of our government. He tried (and failed) to delay Rubio’s work to consolidate permitting. And he threw his own PBOT staff under the bus during a Broadway bike lane debacle.
It’s not a great list of accomplishments. Mapps seems like an OK as a person but a demonstrated track record of failed coalition-building and mediocre management skills doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Rene Gonzalez took over Jo Ann Hardesty’s seat. He’s been over Portland Fire Bureau, the Bureau of Emergency Communications, and the Bureau of Emergency Management. 9-1-1 has been a mess the last several years but it’s unclear how much of that is his fault vs. something he inherited. To the degree he’s had an accomplishment at Council, it’s to push the law and order approaches to the right, and influence state legislators to partially repeal of Measure 110.3 If that’s something you’re into, I get the appeal. But he's also lied about being assaulted on the MAX. He allegedly misused funds to update his Wikipedia page.4 His driving record (6 moving violations, 2 license suspensions, failure to show up to date registration 4 times) isn’t quite as flagrant as Rubio’s but it shows a similar disregard for the law. And, of course, his known positions on policing (and an endorsement by the PPA) suggests he’ll be more a rubber stamp than a check on the worst impulses/behavior of law enforcement.
Carmen Rubio was relatively quiet for her first couple of years on the Council. She was over Portland Housing Bureau, BDS, the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, and Prosper Portland. Of the existing Council members, Rubio has what looks to be the most meaningful accomplishment, spearheading a significant reform to the permitting process. It’s too early to know if it will pan out but it has a lot of promise. Still, it’s unclear what she’ll do differently to address homelessness. And her driving record is impressive: 150 parking tickets and 6 license suspensions, suggesting a flagrant disregard to the idea that the law applies to her. And then, after that was revealed, she had the gall to ding a car and walk away. It makes me question her good sense as much as it does her driving ability.
Pros and Cons: The Fringe Contenders
Liv “Viva” Østhus — A dancer at Mary’s and elsewhere, she wants to bring the rizz back to Portland, with a focus on arts. Arguably the most left-wing of the major candidates, policy-wise. The one candidate I have met personally and she was straightforward and charming.5 She’s got a platform, a vision, and she’s a good communicator but she has done little to assuage me about her inexperience. Does she have the chops to be responsible for an 8 billion dollar budget?
Keith Wilson6 — Wilson is a businessman who has run a successful local trucking company for several decades. His passion7 is addressing homelessness and he has a detailed, maybe unrealistic, plan to do so. To the degree he has has a scandal, it’s around freely donating to various other candidates. Not a great look but it doesn’t look like there was any quid pro quo. In an RCV election with small donation matching, I have trouble faulting the guy for playing (within the rules) aggressively.
Pros and Cons: The Remainders
None of these have a shot at winning. They were unable to build any sort of groundswell of support for their candidacy over the last year. Many of them are single-issue candidates or they didn’t bother to submit anything to the voters guide.
To me, the only interesting ones worth even mention:
Josh Leake - Finance guy, with some experience as a mayoral intern. He has a laundry list of ideas, none of which strike me as obviously bad but there’s a bit of a vibe of someone for class president who is promising everything to everyone.
Alexander Landry Neely - Wineshop owner, whose focus is the arts, hospitality, housing the homeless, and Portland Street Response.
How I’m voting
We get to my final ranking largely through elimination. Most of the candidates are simply unserious and aren’t equipped for the job. And that’s only when I look at the candidates who could win!
Gonzalez policy positions and his approach to homelessness are bold. But bold doesn’t mean effective and I remain unconvinced that hassle, sweep, and jail is an enduring solution. He’s also got awfully thin skin for all his tough talk.
If we want continuity with a Wheeler administration, Mapps is probably the closest to that. Do we want that?
I like Østhus but I’d rather see her run for City Council and even then I’m not sure I’d vote for her on the merits.
Rubio is a more left-leaning “more of the same” candidate. She gets the basics of government but I don’t see the what she’d do differently to address the problems of the day. In terms of outcomes, I see her as someone with a lower floor but higher ceiling than Mapps.
Finally, we have Wilson.
Back in May I said:
So when considering candidates, I look for folks who prioritize the efficient use of tax dollars to solve problems, with both humanity and urgency.
Wilson is the only candidate who could meet the moment with both the humanity and the urgency required.
To quote the Willamette Week’s endorsement: “[Gonzalez and Rubio] offer voters the familiar, binary choice between cruelty and inaction.” and “Wilson’s plan is refreshingly grounded on what other cities are doing…His enthusiasm for solving the problem is unflagging; perhaps that’s something we shouldn’t scoff at, but instead ask for more of from our elected officials.”
Sometimes you vote for the devil you know. Sometimes you vote for the devil you don’t. But this time I’m going to vote for the guy who might, just might, not be a devil at all.
Final Ranking
Keith Wilson
Carmen Rubio
Mingus Mapps
Liv Osthus
Alexander Landry Neely
Rene Gonzalez
One more post to go: City Council (I’ll be mostly focused on District 2) and County Commissioner. Expect it Tuesday.
Original reporting here at Mortlandia.
To me, it seems pretty clear it’s both. I expect they need more detectives (most cities do) and that they need to sort out their hiring pipeline to be more efficient and effective. I also think we should be expanding Portland Street Response to help ease the load since so many calls are related to homelessness or folks in distress (drugs, mental health crises). We may need more beat officers — we certainly have fewer than most cities our size — and we should probably pay them more but I’d be interested in an independent audit to determine that as PPA has a proven track record of being bad actors.
I continue to maintain that Measure 110 is conceptually solid but poorly defined and poorly implemented. Its failure is a shame, both in human terms as a significant setback for decriminalization in Oregon.
This is legitimately funny to me. It’s also a damning reflection on his judgement and character. Both that he thought whitewashing his Wikipedia page was a good idea and that he thought using public funds to do it was OK.
I met her while she was knocking doors with her family in the King neighborhood. Fun fact, she went to Williams, my brother’s alma mater.
I’m going to use my own blog to burnish my Portland hipster cred for a moment: when I saw Wilson was running, I said to myself “huh, why do I recognize that name?” It’s because I voted for him in 2020 in the primary over Eudaly, Mapps, and Sam Adams. From what I recall partly on his positions themselves and partly on the strength of this Portland Tribune endorsement.
I have read somewhere that he slept the night in a shelter to understand what that was like, to develop empathy for folks in that situation. I can’t find that source anymore so it may be apocryphal but if it’s true, it’s reflects well on him.